The Marsh - Albright Group report has two primary focuses: social and economic. The social impact looks at the health and well-being of citizens, families, employees, customers and business partners. The economic impact includes a deeper understanding of the potential for disruption of operations and supply chains, as well as diminishing or fluxing demand for products and services.
The scientific consensus is that an avian pandemic could infect 20 percent of the world's population, result in absenteeism of 40 percent of the global workforce, and kill tens, if not hundreds, of millions of people. The report goes on to say that outbreaks will likely move along modern transportation and distribution chains, with transportation hubs being especially vulnerable. Disruption at these hubs will be significant and could have an irreversible impact on businesses.
"We found very few companies adequately prepared to protect their people or ensure the continuity of their business in the event of a pandemic," said John Merkovsky, president of Marsh's risk consulting unit.
Former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, Principal of The Albright Group said, "We cannot afford to develop pandemic 'fatigue' or a sense of complacency around this particular risk."
She goes on to say, "With so many other pressing issues, preparing for a pandemic may not currently fall high on the list of priorities for businesses; but not doing so could result in devastating consequences for their operations."
James O'Brien, of The Albright Group went on to say, "Not even one in four businesses in Asia has a plan to keep operating when a pandemic happens. And if a pandemic starts in Asia, it will affect every global business."
Financial analysts and risk assessment experts agree that a pandemic outbreak in Dubai could easily have far-reaching effects in Dublin and Dallas.
According to officials who've had preliminary discussions with companies across the globe say that the majority of them believe it's unlikely that a pandemic could strike their operations. However analysts say this type of thinking is poor thinking in the global community of the modern business. Namely it does not take into account the global interdependencies of today's economy.
Just in the last few years, an outbreak of SARS - which never reached pandemic status, but spread quickly from a single case in rural China - resulted in billions of dollars in economic damage. However, since there is no effective risk transfer mechanism for a pandemic, the only answer remains planning and mitigation activities.
"The time to plan is now," said George Abercrombie, president and CEO of Hoffmann-La Roche Inc. "Once the WHO declares that we are in a pandemic, it will be too late for companies to begin planning. Even though, the threat of pandemic avian flu doesn't make the headlines these days, I hope that business continuity managers will read this report and begin to take the threat seriously."
